This paper reviews the main monthly indicators that could help forecasting world trade and compares different type of forecasting models using these indicators. In particular it develops dynamic factor models (DFM) which have the advantage of handling larger datasets of information than bridge...

The financial crisis has resulted in a substantial increase in unemployment in the OECD. This paper shows that this increase has reversed the reduction in structural unemployment which has been estimated to have occurred in most OECD countries since the late 1990s. Structural unemployment is...

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of international investment positions for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. In addition to the usually considered drivers of foreign assets and liabilities, the analysis focuses on the role of...

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow...

This paper analyses the effect of capital inflow shocks on the evolution of domestic credit. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that in the two years following the beginning of a capital inflow shock the credit-to-GDP ratio increases by about 2...

This paper describes the sources and methods used to construct the trade matrices of the OECD trade system. It also provides an overview of the trade relationships between countries, especially individual OECD countries and the main non-OECD economies, as well as their evolution between 2000 and...

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...

This paper provides a summary of the OECD’s new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more...

The global recession is likely to results in higher structural unemployment for some time in many OECD countries. This paper assesses how the shock to aggregate unemployment as a result of the economic crisis may be transmitted to structural unemployment through hysteresis effects that occur...

The collapse in world trade volumes at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 was exceptional by historical standards. This paper shows that world demand (to which trade has become more responsive in recent decades) can explain most of the collapse in world trade, but that tight credit conditions...