Recent research [e.g., DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal, (2009a), Rev. Fin. Studies] has cast doubts on the out-of-sample performance of optimizing portfolio strategies relative to a naive, equally-weighted ones. However, most of the existing results concern the simple case in which an investor has...

We calculate the ex-post portfolio performance for an investor who diversifies among stocks, bonds, REITS and cash. Simulations are performed for two alternative asset allocation frameworks – classical and Bayesian - and for scenarios involving two different samples and six different...

We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse European investor who diversifies among stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and...

Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for...

In this paper we take an empirical asset pricing perspective and investigate the dominant view (possibly, an instinctive reflection of the media hype surrounding the surge of Bitcoin valuations) that cryptocurrencies represent a new asset class, spanning risks and payoffs sufficiently...

Most papers in the portfolio choice literature have examined linear predictability frameworks based on the idea that simple but flexible Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models can be expanded to produce portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets...

We investigate whether the favorable performance of a fairly simple multistate multivariate Markov regime switching model relative to even very complex multivariate GARCH specifications, recently reported in the literature using measures of in-sample prediction accuracy, extends to pseudo...

This paper studies the predictive performance of multivariate models at forecasting the (excess) returns of portfolios mimicking the Market, Size, Value, Momentum, and Low Volatility factors isolated in asset pricing research. We evaluate the accuracy of the point forecasts of a number of linear...

A recent literature has shown that REIT returns contain strong evidence of bull and bear dynamic regimes that may be best captured using nonlinear econometric models of the Markov switching type. In fact, REIT returns would display regime shifts that are more abrupt and persistent than in the...

We apply a two-step strategy to forecast the dynamics of the volatility surface implicit in option prices to all American-style options written on the stocks that have entered the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index between 2004 and 2016. We explore whether the implied volatilities extracted...