Risk management and the thorough understanding of the relations betweenfinancial markets and the standard theory of macroeconomics have always been among the topics most addressed by researchers, both financial mathematicians and economists. This work aims at explaining investors behavior from a...

Graphical data representation is an important tool for model selection in bankruptcy analysis since the problem is highly non-linear and its numericalrepresentation is much less transparent. In classical rating models a convenientrepresentation of ratings in a closed form is possible reducing...

The calibration of option pricing models leads to the minimization of an error functional. We show that its usual specification as a root mean squared error implies fluctuating exotics prices and possibly wrong prices...

Woman surage led to the greatest enfranchisement in the history of the United States.Before World War I, however, surage states remained almost exclusively conned to theAmerican West. The reasons for this pioneering role of the West are still unclear. Studyingthe timing of woman surage adoption...

Motivated by the recurrent Neural Networks, this paper proposes a recurrent Support Vector Regression (SVR) procedure to forecast nonlinear ARMA model based simulated data and real data of financial returns. The forecasting ability of the recurrent SVR is compared with three competing methods,...

This paper studies how national sentiment in the form of either a perception or a loyaltybias of bettors may affect pricing patterns on national wagering markets for international sportevents. We show theoretically that both biases can be profitably exploited by bookmakers byway of price...

Empirical studies have shown that a large number of financial asset returns exhibit fat tails and are often characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and...

Based on county-level census data for the German state of Bavaria in 1939 and 1946, we use World War II as a natural experiment to study the effects of sex ratio changes on out-of-wedlock fertility. Our findings show that war-induced shortfalls of men to women significantly increased the...

The volatility implied by observed market prices as a function of the strikeand time to maturity form an Implied Volatility Surface (IV S). Practicalapplications require reducing the dimension and characterize its dynamicsthrough a small number of factors. Such dimension reduction is...

This paper provides a first microeconomic foundation for the institution of marriage. Based on a model of reproduction, mating, and parental investment in children, we argue that marriage serves the purpose of attenuating the risk of mating market failure that arises from incomplete information...