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The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains a degree of (hidden) uncertainty. As a result, this uncertainty (in a sense, similar to vibrations, fluctuations) pushes the probability value back from the bounds to the middle of its range (from ~100% and ~0% to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835639
The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains an (hidden) uncertainty. The first consequence of the principle: the real values of high probabilities are lower than the preliminarily determined ones; conversely, the real values of low probabilities can be higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835901
A new approach is presented. It is based on a generalization of a breach of a term of contract and on the economic uncertainty principle. Problems, which can be solved, research fields, which can be augmented or created, and fields of applications in practical economy are reviewed. The role of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836335
The article raises the question of possible existence of ruptures, gaps in the probability scale which are caused by noises, uncertainties. A hypothesis of existence of such ruptures may be used to solve a number of problems of, e.g., utility theory in economics. The calculations give the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008587482
The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110243