The probability distribution of the internal rate of return of an investment is derived under conditions where uncertainty in costs and returns can be described by a multi-variate normal distribution. The paper sketches the derivation of the exact probability distribution for the rate of return...

Two computable general equilibrium models, one global and the other providing U.S. regional detail, are applied to analysis of the future of U.S. natural gas. The focus is on uncertainties including the scale and cost of gas resources, the costs of competing technologies, the pattern of...

The emergence of U.S. shale gas resources to economic viability affects the nation's energy outlook and the expected role of natural gas in climate policy. Even in the face of the current shale gas boom, however, questions are raised about both the economics of this industry and the wisdom of...