We show that, in a frictionless and efficient market, an asset pricing model that better describes investors' behavior should better forecast stock index returns. We propose a dividend model that predicts, out-of-sample, 31.3% of the variation in annual dividend growth rates (1976-2015)....

We argue that the CAPM may be a reasonable model for estimating the cost of capital for projects in spite of increasing empirical evidence in the literature against the CAPM based on stock returns. As McDonald and Siegel (1985) and Berk, Green and Naik (1999) point out, stocks are backed by...