This paper analyzes the contagion channels through which a Greek credit event would spread to the rest of the European Union and then to the United States. A credit crisis would be manifested as a shortage of liquidity, but the real cause would be bank credit risk, which would infect...

From this paper's Preface, by Dr. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, President: A rebound of consumption, investment, and consumer confidence in the second half of 2003 has raised hopes that the U.S. economic recovery from the 2001 recession is on a sustainable course. According to this brief by Philip...

In an asset and debt deflation, the process of reducing debt by saving and curtailing spending takes a long time, say the authors. Current imbalances and poor prospects for spending in the private sector affect the balance sheets of the commercial banks. The downward spiral between the banks and...

The anemic U.S. economic recovery and the threat of a double-dip recession stem from the weakness of investment, due to excess capacity created in the euphoric years of the "new economy" bubble. The current imbalances in the corporate sector (i.e., the all-time-high indebtedness in the face of...

The consumer has been on a tightrope since the bursting of the "new economy" bubble, as losses in equity markets have been partly offset by gains in real estate and fiscal support and mortgage refinancing have partly offset increased consumer cautiousness. The consumer will remain on a tightrope...

This contribution discusses the origins of the Great Recession and also offers suggestions for possible cures. The focus in explaining the origins of the crisis is on two features: the experience in the us with financial liberalisation is most telling in terms of the cause of the current crisis....

A continuation of the current policy of bond purchases known as quantitative easing is highly probable under Janet Yellen, who is likely to be confirmed as the successor to Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. The authors assess the probable outcomes for interest rates, which they think will not...

Beginning with an assessment of new thinking in macroeconomics and monetary theory, this book suggests that many countries have adopted the New Consensus Monetary Policy since the early 1990s in an attempt to reduce inflation to low levels. It goes on to illustrate that the explicit control of...