Unobserved components time series models decompose a time series into a trend, a season, a cycle, an irregular disturbance, and possibly other components. These models have been successfully applied to many economic time series. The standard assumption of a linear model, often appropriate after...

We introduce a new and general methodology for analyzing vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficient matrices and conditionally heteroskedastic disturbances. Our proposed method is able to jointly treat a dynamic latent factor model for the autoregressive coefficient matrices and...