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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020 - This version: February 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170616
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Global recessions
Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka; Terrones, Marco E. - 2020
The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009 …, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159612
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Global Recessions
Kose, M. Ayhan - 2020
The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009 …, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841841
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Is a Global Recession Imminent?
Guenette, Justin Damien; Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka - 2022
Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014243612
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Is a Global Recession Imminent?
Guenette, Justin Damien; Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka - 2023
Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to analyze the recent evolution of economic activity and policies and presents plausible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014259927
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Can World Real Interest Rates Explain Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy?
Blankenau, William F. - 2006
While the world real interest rate is potentially an important mechanism for transmitting international shocks to small … output, investment, and net exports. We reexamine the importance of world real interest rate shocks using an approach that …'s observable endogenous variables. Then we use variance decompositions to examine the importance of each shock. We apply this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012735713
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012224963
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012210146
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Global recessions
Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka; Terrones, Marco E. - 2020
The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009 … internationally, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230745