It is common to assert, in the literature on commodity derivative markets, that the behavior of futures prices is characterized by the "Samuelson Hypothesis": there is a decreasing pattern of volatilities along the prices curve. Despite some debates about statistical measurements, this...

We propose a simple equilibrium model, where the physical and the derivative markets of the commodity interact. There are three types of agents: industrial pro- cessors, inventory holders and speculators. Only the two first of them operate in the physical market. All of them, however, may...

Developing term structure models can be tricky, as unknown factors and non-observable variables can affect futures prices. But principal components analysis is useful in tackling these problems. Here, Delphine Lautier uses PCA to pin down price movements, test their stability over time and to...

This article analyses long-term dynamic hedging strategies relying on term structure models of commodity prices and proposes a new way to calibrate the models which takes into account the errors associated to the hedge ratios. Different strategies, with maturities up to seven years, are tested...

A Kalman filter can be used for the estimation of a model’s parameters, when the model relies on non observable data. In finance, this kind of problem arises for example with term structure models of interest rates, term structure models of commodity prices, and with the market portfolio in...

This article focuses on the volatility of crude oil futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It aims at examining whether this market creates excess volatility, which would not be observed in the absence of such a market. In order to reach this objective, price fluctuations are...

La présentation de la théorie du stockage et de la notion de convenience yield permet d’exposer les fondements théoriques des modèles de structure par terme des prix des commodités. Ces derniers peuvent être utilisés pour réaliser des opérations de couverture ou dans le cadre de...

Whereas the spatial integration has already been examined in commodity markets, empirical tests on temporal integration have never been carried out. Relying on the “preferred habitat” theory, which is applied to the crude oil market, this article investigates whether this market is segmented...