In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European … outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe … the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment …

In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European … outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe … the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment …

We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing …, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These differences are mainly explained …

imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross … domestic product. We introduce the first leading indicator constructed to forecast import growth, the Import Climate. It builds …

the best-performing indicators beat a well-specified benchmark model in terms of forecast accuracy. It turns out that four …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both …

manufacturing industry. Furthermore, declining transfers will cause employment to be 3 % lower. Despite these macroeconomic effects …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg …-indicator, pooled and factor forecasts in a pseudo real-time setting. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast …