We solve the problem of optimal inventory management for a CARA market-maker who faces proportional transaction costs and marking to market. Our model accommodates inventory shocks following an arbitrary compound Poisson process, and allows us to link the optimal policy to the moment-generating...

We solve the problem of optimal risk management for an investor holding an illiquid, alpha generating fund and hedging his position with a liquid futures contract. When the investor is subject to a drawdown constraint, he is forced to reduce the total risk of his portfolio after a drawdown. In...

Contrary to conventional wisdom in nance, return prediction R2 and optimal portfolio Sharpe ratio generally increase with model parameterization, even when minimal regularization is used. We theoretically characterize the behavior of return prediction models in the high complexity regime, i.e....

We propose a new asset-pricing framework in which all securities' signals are used to predict each individual return. While the literature focuses on each security's own- signal predictability, assuming an equal strength across securities, our framework is flexible and includes...

We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models. We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance—in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and average pricing errors—is improving in model parameterization (or “complexity”). Our results predict that the best...

We propose that investment strategies should be evaluated based on their net-of-trading-cost return for each level of risk, which we term the "implementable efficient frontier." While numerous studies use machine learning return forecasts to generate portfolios, their agnosticism toward trading...

We investigate the performance of non-linear return prediction models in the high complexity regime, i.e., when the number of model parameters exceeds the number of observations. We document a "virtue of complexity" in all asset classes that we study (US equities, international equities, bonds,...

Foreign exchange operates as a two-tiered over-the-counter (OTC) market dominatedby large, strategic dealers. Using proprietary high frequency data on quotesby the largest foreign exchange dealer banks in the dealer-to-customer (D2C) market,we find a significant heterogeneity in their behavior....