period 1970Q1-2003Q4 for 10 macroeconomic variables. The years 2000-2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of different … univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some nonlinear … forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and European Monetary Union (EMU …

whenever there is structural instability in factor loadings. For empirical applications, we consider forecasting economic …