This paper proposes an informal taxonomy to break down forecast errors of institutional forecasts. This breakdown is demonstrated for the forecasts of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) for Austrian GDP. The main result is that the largest part of the forecast errors can be explained by...

For the third year in a row, the Austrian economy will grow by only around 1 percent in 2003. Adding to the persistent weakness of domestic demand are the economic repercussions of geopolitical instability. For 2004, uncertainties are particularly large, with growth projected to stay below the...

Under benign assumptions concerning the international business cycle, the Austrian economy should grow by 1.3 percent in volume this year, and by 1.9 percent in 2002, provided that the U.S. economy recovers and policy in the EU takes action to stem the forces of recession. Along with weaker...