This paper focuses on some of the macroeconomic risks that lie ahead for Latin America. The discussion is informed by my work on crises and capital flows and their macroeconomic consequences. The trends and initial conditions that allowed the region to weather the global economic storm of...

In this note, we attempt to place the question of how we got to the global financial crisis that began as the US Subprime debacle in the summer of 2007 in the context of an international and historical comparative setting. It is of some poignancy that the “we” here refers to the wealthiest...

This paper constructs composite indices of globalization of 131 countries spread over the five continents and classified into World-I, World-II and World-III countries. KOF, the Business Cycle Research Institute in the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich is the source of data used in...

This paper uses mixed combinatorial-cum-real particle swarm method to obtain a heuristically optimal order in which the constituent variables can be arranged so as to yield some generalized maximum entropy synthetic indicators that represent the constituent variables in the best...

The paper is an attempt to evaluate the efficiency of Pena’s DP-2 method over a host of methods used to make composite indices. To undertake this exercise, variables and data used and methodology adopted in Human Development Report 2011 are employed along with nine other methodologies employed...

The present study devises a computational scheme (and develops a FORTRAN 77 computer program) that may be appropriate to construct Pena’s DP2 (ordinal) synthetic indicator (Z) from the partial indicators (X) all of which are ordinal (ranking scores). An attempt has also been made to...

The standard pattern: capital flows into the new “hot” nation, but then stop or reverses forcing painful adjustment. This column presents research based on such episodes from 181 nations during 1980-2007 and for a subset of 66 nations for the 1960-2007 period. If the pattern of the past few...

The foresight and scenario building methods can be an interesting reference for social sciences, especially in terms of innovative methods for labour process analysis. A scenario – as a central concept for the prospective analysis – can be considered as a rich and detailed portrait of a...

We highlight in this note how an application of a similar estimation approach as ours to Colombian data for a more recent period following financial and capital account liberalization may find that the money supply is "endogenous" (i.e. demand-determined as long as the exchange rate is heavily...

As a Norwegian sociologist pointed out recently at the Encontro Internacional de Vilamoura on Fishing, “the fisheries management is the management of people, not fish" This statement may surprise many specialists, but it puts once again a series of questions and problems in their true place:...