In the paper a small scale macroeconometric model for the Euro area is built, relying on cobreaking and fractional cointegration theory. Several linkages relating key macroeconomic variables are found. Firstly, evidence of a common non linear deterministic trend driving the long-run evolution of...

In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the common persistent feature in inflation and...

In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in...

We propose a measure of core inflation which is derived from a Markov switching ARFIMA model. The Markov switching ARFIMA model generalises the standard ARFIMA model allowing mean reversion to take place with respect to a changing unconditional mean. By imposing a coswitching restriction for...

In this paper, we introduce a new time-domain decomposition for weakly stationary or trend stationary processes, based on trigonometric polynomial modeling of the underlying component of an economic time series. The method is explicitly devised to disentangle medium to long-term and short-term...

This paper introduces a new decomposition of euro area headline inflation into core, cyclical and residual components. Our new core inflation measure, the structural core inflation rate, bears the interpretation of expected headline inflation, conditional to medium to long-term demand and...