This paper presents a model for the long-run determinants of the Brazilian real exchange rate for the period 1947/95. This is a simple representative agent model that links the exchange rate, external debt and net exports. It is assumed that: a) the country pays an interest rate on its debt...

This paper uses VAR models to discuss two main questions: a) are the indexing mechanisms that characterised the Brazilian economy for decades a thing of the past, or could they be easily reactivated in the event of some important price shock? b) given the fiscal stance, what would be the likely...

The objective of our work is to study the term structure of interest rates and the sovereign credit spreads of emerging markets. We develop a model from term structure, credit risk and vector autoregressive models, based on the articles by Ang and Piazzesi (2003) and Ang, Dong and Piazzesi...