We propose a Lagrange Multiplier test of the null hypothesis of cointegration in fractionally cointegrated models. The test statistic utilizes fully modified residuals to cancel the endogeneity and serial correlation biases, and we show that standard asymptotic properties apply under the null...

We propose a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test of the null hypothesis of cointegration in fractionally cointegrated models. The test statistic utilizes fully modified residuals to cancel the endogeneity and serial correlation biases, and we show that standard asymptotics apply. With i.i.d. Gaussian...

This manual describes the usage of the accompanying freely available Matlab program for estimation and testing in the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. This program replaces an earlier Matlab program by Nielsen and Morin (2014), and although the present Matlab...

We consider the fractional cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model of Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) and show that the test statistic for the ususal CVAR model is asymptotically chi-squared distributed. Because the usual CVAR model lies on the boundary of the parameter space for the...

We consider the fractional cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model of Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) and make two distinct contributions. First, in their con- sistency proof, Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) imposed moment conditions on the errors that depend on the parameter space, such that...

We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realized volatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures. Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric statistical...

We apply the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices in five commodity markets (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). To this end, we first extend the FCVAR model to accommodate de terministic trends in the...

We apply the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices in five commodity markets (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). To this end, we first extend the FCVAR model to accommodate deterministic trends in the...

We propose a statistical procedure to determine the dimension of the nonstationary subspace of cointegrated functional time series taking values in the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions defined on a compact interval. The procedure is based on sequential application of a proposed test...

We introduce a multivariate Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for fractional integration. We derive and analyze the LM statistic and show that it is asymptotically chi-squared distributed under local alternatives, and that, under Gaussianity, the LM test is asymptotically efficient against local...