We analyze the interaction of stock market movements and politics in Germany. In contrast to the empirical evidence …

I use a time-varying parameter model in order to study the predictability of monthly real stock returns in Germany over …

structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the … in Germany reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely ?good luck?. …

We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised …

and Gertler (1998, 2000) to study monetary policy in Germany in the period 1991 to 1998. The estimation results show that …

structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the … in Germany reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely "good luck". …

This paper elaborates on the relative importance of sectoral shocks for real economic activity in Germany. Implications …