Obtaining reliable estimates of insurance premiums is a critical step in risk sharing and risk transfer necessary to ensure solvency and continuity in crop insurance programs. Challenges encountered in the estimation include dealing with aggregation bias from using county level yield averages as...

Recently developed techniques are combined for modeling mutually correlated crop yields and prices that exhibit heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, respectively, and follow non-normal probability density functions (pdf's). The importance rigorously modeling these pdf's for financial risk...

This study presents a way to parametrically model and simulate multivariate distributions under potential non-normality, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity and illustrates its application to agricultural risk analysis. Specifically, the joint probability distribution (pdf) for West Texas...

This paper estimates the costs of buying water use rights from farmers located in the Mafraq-Azraq basin in Jordan. Farmers’ water supply curve is estimated using data gathered from a contingent valuation survey. Estimation results indicate that a total supply of 29 million m3 could be...

Simulation methods are used to measure the expected differentials between the Mean Square Errors of the forecasts from models based on temporally disaggregated versus aggregated data. This allows for novel comparisons including long-order ARMA models, such as those expected with weekly data,...

The magnitude of basis risk between Actual Production History (APH) and Group Risk Plan (GRP) contracts across corn farms in Illinois counties is estimated using pseudo-simulated yields with farm specific geospatial climate data. A two-step hierarchical Bayes small area estimator was used to...

Simulation methods are used to measure the expected differentials between the Mean Square Errors of the forecasts from models based on temporally disaggregated versus aggregated data. This allows for novel comparisons including long-order ARMA models, such as those expected with weekly data,...

The distributions currently used to model and simulate crop yields are unable to accommodate a substantial subset of the theoretically feasible mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis (MVSK) hyperspace. Because these first four central moments are key determinants of shape, the available distributions...