While Switzerland's recent growth of employment was high in historical and international perspective, the reasons for this "job miracle" were not well understood. As the "miracle" was not anticipated by economic forecasters, it consequently resulted in systematic and persistent forecast errors....

Does increased policy uncertainty dampen investment plans of firms? We provide direct evidence on this question by examining the effects of an unexpectedly accepted and farreaching referendum in Switzerland in February 2014. The vote has put several economically relevant agreements between...

This paper examines the linkages between real exchange rate movements and firms' skill demand. Real exchange rate movements may affect unskilled workers differently than skilled workers because of skill-specific adjustment costs, or because exchange rates lead to changes in relative factor...

Konjunkturprognosen unterliegen derzeit einer ungewöhnlich hohen Unsicherheit. Jeden Tag werden neue Massnahmen zur Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie angekündigt. Es herrscht nicht nur Unklarheit über die aktuelle und künftige Ausbreitung des Virus, sondern auch über staatliche...