We examine empirically the response of bond returns and their volatility to good and bad macroeconomic news in economic expansions and recessions. We find that the information content of macroeconomic announcements is mostimportant when it contains bad news for bond returns in expansions and,...

Do bond investors demand credit quality or liquidity? The answer is both, but at different times and for different reasons. Using data on the Euro-area government bond market, which features a unique negative correlation between credit quality and liquidity across countries, we show that the...

We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied...