This paper studies the estimation of a semi-strong GARCH(1,1) model when it does not have a stationary solution, where semi-strong means that we do not require the errors to be independent over time. We establish necessary and su±cient conditions for a semi-strong GARCH(1,1) process to have a...

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is...

This paper presents estimates of key preference parameters of the Epstein and Zin (1989, 1991) and Weil (1989) (EZW) recursive utility model, evaluates the model’s ability to fit asset return data relative to other asset pricing models, and investigates the implications of such estimates for...

Evidence that asset returns are more highly correlated during volatile markets and during market downturns (see Longin and Solnik, 2001, and Ang and Chen, 2002) has lead some researchers to propose alternative models of dependence. In this paper we develop two simple goodness-of-fit tests for...

We study semiparametric efficiency bounds and efficient estimation of parameters defined through general moment restrictions with missing data. Identification relies on auxiliary data containing information about the distribution of the missing variables conditional on proxy variables that are...

This paper considers the maximum generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimation and inference on parameters identified by high dimensional moment restrictions with weakly dependent data when the dimensions of the moment restrictions and the parameters diverge along with the sample size. The...

A conference titled 'Forecasting in Rio' was held at the Graduate School of Economics of Getulio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in July 2008 to focus on most recent developments in forecasting. One of the papers presented during the conference was titled, 'Predictability of Stock...

This paper studies the estimation of a semi-strong GARCH(1,1) model when it does not have a stationary solution, where semi-strong means that we do not require the errors to be independent over time. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for a semi-strong GARCH(1,1) process to have a...

This paper develops a new estimation procedure for characteristic-based factor models of security returns. We treat the factor model as a weighted additive nonparametric regression model, with the factor returns serving as time-varying weights, and a set of univariate non-parametric functions...

We develop new tests of the capital asset pricing model which are valid under the assumption that the distribution generating returns is elliptically symmetric; this assumption is necessary and sufficient for the validity of the CAPM. Our test is based on semiparametric efficient estimation...