Gandolfo et al. [Journal of Banking and Finance 14 (1990) 965-992] have shown that their continuous time model of the Italian economy produces better ex post out-of-sample forecasts of the exchange rate than either existing structural or random-walk models. When the Michigan Quarterly...

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of ex ante econometric model forecasts of four key macroeconomic variables: real GNP growth, the rate of price inflation measured by the GNP deflator, the civilian unemployment rate, and the Treasury Bill rate. Annual forecasts produced by...