The Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling philosophy emphasises the importance of parametrically efficient, low order, ‘dominant mode’ models, as well as the development of stochastic methods and the associated statistical analysis required for their identification and estimation....

This paper describes data assimilation (DA) and adaptive forecasting techniques for flood forecasting and their application to forecasting water levels at various locations along a 120 km reach of the river Severn, United Kingdom. The methodology exploits the top-down, data-based mechanistic...

This paper discusses the modelling of rainfall-flow (rainfall-run-off) and flow-routeing processes in river systems within the context of real-time flood forecasting. It is argued that deterministic, reductionist (or 'bottom-up') models are inappropriate for real-time forecasting because of the...

Operational flood forecasting requires accurate forecasts with a suitable lead time, in order to be able to issue appropriate warnings and take appropriate emergency actions. Recent improvements in both flood plain characterization and computational capabilities have made the use of distributed...

The paper describes a general approach to the modelling of nonlinear and nonstationary economic systems from time-series data. This method exploits recursive state space filtering and fixed interval smoothing algorithms to decompose the time-series into long term trend and short term small...

The analysis of the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies in the euro area has been traditionally limited by the absence of quarterly fiscal data. To overcome this problem, we provide two new databases in this paper. Firstly, we construct a quarterly database of euro area fiscal variables for...

We construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the main componentsof the Spanish General Government sector made up of blocks for each one of its subsectors: Central Government, Social Security and aggregate of Regional and Local government sectors. Each block is modelled...

La evolución del gasto de las Comunidades Autónomas y Corporaciones Locales ha ido adquiriendo cada vez más relevancia y actualmente se encuentra en el punto de mira de inversores tanto nacionales como internaciones, analistas, organismos internacionales y agencias de calificación. Este...

En este trabajo presentamos una herramienta para el seguimiento en tiempo real de la ejecución presupuestaria de las Administraciones Públicas en España. La herramienta incorpora un conjunto amplio de modelos estadísticos, con diferentes niveles de agregación entre partidas presupuestarias...