The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor et al. (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real exchange rate series over an out-of-sample evaluation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are evaluated relative to a simple AR(1) specification, considering...

The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor, Peel and Sarno (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real exchange rate series over an out-of-sample evaluation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are constructed, considering forecast horizons of 1 to 22...

Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from...

An open economy New Keynesian policy model for Australia is estimated in this study. We investigate how important external shocks are as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations when compared to domestic ones. The results of our analysis suggest that the Australian business cycle and domestic...

We use a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach to construct forecasts of individual equity returns for a large cross-section of stocks contained in the SP500, FTSE100, DAX30, CAC40 and SPX30 headline indices, taking value, momentum, and quality factors as predictor variables. Fixing the set of...

An open economy New Keynesian policy model for Australia is estimated in this study. We investigate how important external shocks are as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations when compared to domestic ones. The results of our analysis suggest that the Australian business cycle and domestic...

We show that long horizon forecasts from the nonlinear models that are considered in the study by Rapach andWohar (2006) cannot generate any forecast gains over a simple AR(1) specification. This is contrary to the findings reported in Rapach and Wohar (2006). Moreover, we illustrate graphically...