The importance of the simulation (both deterministic and stochastic) in the validation process of a non linear econometric model is underlined. Synthetic results of a large set of simulations on a non linear model of the Italian economy are presented. The benefits and the risks of the stochastic...

This paper is concerned with the contribution to forecast errors of errors in the estimated structural coefficients of a macro-econometric model (simultaneous equations). Its main purpose is to perform, on several "real-world" models, an empirical comparison of alternative techniques available...

This article describes the application to an operational medium-size econometric model, mini-DMS, of methods associating, to deterministic forecasts, a measure of the uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of behavioural equations. After having described the theoretical and practical...

In nonlinear econometric models, the evaluation of forecast errors is usually performed, completely or partially, by resorting to stochastic simulation. However, for evaluating the specific contribution of errors in estimated structural coefficients, several alternative methods have been...

The estimation method of Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) with Principal Components (2SPC) is applied to a medium-sized nonlinear econometric model of the Italian Economy.

A well known macroeconometric model of the Italian economy is updated to produce forecasts at 1974.

For some structural econometric models, the contribution of the off-diagonal blocks of the coefficients covariance matrix to the asymptotic standard errors of multipliers and forecasts is empirically evaluated.

Experiments of stochastic simulation on a nonlinear macroeconometric model are described in this paper. The results are used both for improving the validation of a model of the Italian economy and for revisiting the heuristic value of the stochastic simulation methodology.

In this paper the results of six different estimation methods appliead to a linear aggregated model of the Italian economy are at first displayed. Afterwards, the inherent dynamic characteristics and the simulation properties of the six sets of estimates are analyzed. In no case the obtained...

When dealing with nonlinear econometric models, resort is often made to simulation techniques for the investigation of their dynamic properties. A spectral analysis using stochastic and analytic simulation is carried out on a nonlinear model of the Italian economy. The two approaces are...