This work proposes a class of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models whose period is an independent and identically distributed random process valued in a finite set. The causality, invertibility, and autocovariance shape of the model are first revealed. Then, the estimation of...

This study examines policy tools in the fight against terrorism when existing levels of terrorism matter in 53 African countries for the period 1998-2012. The empirical evidence is based on contemporary, non-contemporary and Instrumental Variable Quantile regressions (QR) which enable the...

This study assesses whether improving governance standards affects environmental quality in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000-2012. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. Bundled and unbundled governance dynamics are used notably: (i) political...

We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographical characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents' movements. We show that several invariance properties of the SIR model with respect to...

This paper examines the behaviour of disaggregated output over the economic cycle in South Africa. Aggregate output and output of the economic sectors and industries were decomposed into their transitory and potential components. These components were then examined for comovement. The results of...

This paper examines the behaviour of disaggregated output over the economic cycle in South Africa. Aggregate output and output of the economic sectors and industries were decomposed into their transitory and potential components. These components were then examined for comovement. The results of...

We study the distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator (Zou (2006)) in finite samples as well as in the large-sample limit. The large-sample distributions are derived both for the case where the adaptive LASSO estimator is tuned to perform conservative model selection as well as for the case...

The recent rise and distinct geography of populism highlights the need for high resolution data on the economic and political landscapes and improved spatial political economy models that explain their interrelation. This paper shows that divergent development generates political externalities...

Multivariate GARCH models are in principle able to accommodate the features of the dynamic conditional correlations processes, although with the drawback, when the number of financial returns series considered increases, that the parameterizations entail too many parameters.In general, the...

This paper examines the behaviour of disaggregated output over the economic cycle in South Africa. Aggregate output and output of the economic sectors and industries were decomposed into their transitory and potential components. These components were then examined for comovement. The results of...