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This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230637
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015233042
With the inflation-growth nexus being a hotly debated issue within the academic paradigm, the purpose of our study is … a credit technology which causes a nonlinear relationship between inflation and growth. Econometrically, we rely on the … smooth transition regression (STR) which allows us to estimate an optimal inflation rate characterized by smooth transition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261115
The estimation of inflation volatility is important to central banks as it guides their policy initiatives for … Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family with a view to providing a parsimonious approximation to the dynamics of Nigeria’s inflation volatility … and food CPI, implying that the impacts of inflation shocks on their volatilities die away very slowly. However, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265193
In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738
asymmetric cointegration effects of inflation on the stock market returns for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) using monthly … autoregressive (MTAR) model. Indeed, our results advocate for a negative, nonlinear cointegration relationship between inflation and … stock returns in South Africa with causality running uni-directional from inflation to stock returns. Our empirical results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015251268
This paper considers the forecast accuracies of VAR and ARIMA models. The paper, hence, employs monthly Turkish CPI, Exchange Rate and Interest rate variables for the period 1994:1-200:07, and, observes the ex-post forecast values of the relevant variables. To this end, paper first determines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015254124
banks use forecasting models based on ANN methodology for predicting various macroeconomic indicators, like inflation, GDP … Growth and currency in circulation etc. In this paper, we have attempted to forecast monthly YoY inflation for Pakistan by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015216499
For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey … models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high … frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230546