This paper introduces a tractable, structural model of subjective beliefs. Since agents that plan for the future care about expected future utility flows, current felicity can be increased by believing that better outcomes are more likely. On the other hand, expectations that are biased towards...

We model decisions to apply for a job or admission, attend an audition, or run for office as costly entry in contests where the outcomes solely depend on entrants' talent or ability. Player ability is privately known and players generically differ in commonly-known characteristics such as...