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We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015262273
This document exposes a EWS that is based on two models, the first corresponds to a full econometric model such as the Logistics and the second is a financial model based on OVT for the KMV model. Both models are based on financial indicators CAMEL evaluation methodology for the Cooperative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015220874
In the past decades, there has been an unprecedented increase in cross border transactions between countries in terms of goods and financial flows. This integration has been fuelled by search of lower risk investments, risk diversification, search for cost effective and more efficient factors of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015221104
A financial network model, where the coded identity of the counterparties of every trade is known, is applied to both stable and crisis periods in a large and liquid overnight repo market in an emerging market economy. We have analyzed the financial crisis by using various network investigation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015224246
In the paper the author represents the system dynamic model of taxes income and it action results. The system dynamic is one from systems research methods, which analyses the systems in time depending from structure of system elements and their mutual influence, including reasons connections,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015224498
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230635
It is generally accepted that the recent economic crisis of 2007-2010 has caused widespread economic recession in different countries. Since the ports and coastal regions are of great importance to economic infrastructure, this study examined the possible impact resulting from such a global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015231499
Additionally to the financial crisis causing a world recession, Liechtenstein’s financial sector has been challenged by the so-called “Zumwinkel-Affair”, when a whistle-blower sold data of hundreds of tax evaders to international tax authorities. This paper investigates the impact of this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015234270
This paper proposes an approach to explore the strength of the financial system of a country against the possibility of financial perturbations appearing based on the construction of the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of a country. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Gibbs sampler technique...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015234349
Our paper presents a set of stylized empirical facts resulted from the statistical investigation of the daily and monthly price variations of European stock market indices during the period April 2007 - March 2012. We study 21 regional and global stock market indices calculated by MSCI Barra,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015235644