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Based on a classical financial market model different model variants known from the literature are discussed and analyzed, each focussing on modeling financial markets as a nonlinear dynamic system by introducing the formation of (heterogeneous) beliefs about future asset prices into the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009428980
Stochastic volatility (SV) models provide a means of tracking and forecasting the variance of financial asset returns. While SV models have a number of theoretical advantages over competing variance modelling procedures they are notoriously difficult to estimate. The distinguishing feature of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009437989
expensive. The polynomial chaos approach has been shown to be more efficient than Monte Carlo for quantifying the effects of … polynomial chaos theory for parameter estimation: a Bayesian approach, and an approach using an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to … obtain the polynomial chaos representation of the uncertain states and the uncertain parameters. The two methods are applied …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009457571
significantly reduce uncertainty through traditional approaches may in part be explained by chaos theory. This paper defines … deterministic chaos and demonstrates that supply chains can display some of the key characteristics of chaotic systems, namely …: chaos exhibits sensitivity to initial conditions; it has Islands of Stability; generates patterns; invalidates the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009463190
response by changing the slope of the demand schedule can thrust the model into instability, chaos, and extinction, without … via slope preserving increases in market demand can push the model into instability, chaos, and even extinction. Finally …, we show that similar adjustments in market demand may be capable of eliminating instability and chaos rooted in powerful …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009444668
Numerical weather forecast errors are generated by model deficiencies and by errors in the initial conditions which interact and grow nonlinearly. With recent progress in data assimilation, the accuracy in the initial conditions has been substantially improved so that accounting for systematic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009450747
will probably be irrelevant in doing empirical analysis. Existence of nonlinearity in financial markets has been argued by … regarded nonlinearity tests. In addition, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) was tested in this dissertation for the GCC … stock markets using both the standard linear approach and the more sophisticated nonlinearity tests. Since most of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009430941
Traditional macroeconometric models of the Australian economy estimate the behaviour of wage and price inflation separately, thereby ignoring the possibility that there is a contemporaneous relationship between these two variables. This thesis follows a recent trend emerging in other small open...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009438087
We study the behavior of real exchange rates in a two-country dynamic equilibrium model. In this model, consumers can only consume domestic goods but can invest costlessly in capital stocks of both countries. Nevertheless, transporting goods between the two countries is costly and, hence, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440709
In this dissertation three different economic issues have been analyzed. The firstissue is whether monetary policy rules can improve forecasting accuracy of inflation.The second is whether the preference of a central bank is symmetry or not. The last issueis whether the behavior of aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009465152