We analyse the long-run imbalances of finance-dominated capitalism underlying the present crisis – which began in 2007 – with a focus on developments in the US and Germany. We argue that beyond inefficient regulation of the financial sector, the severeness of the present crisis has been...

In a previous paper: “Conversion Theory: the key to understanding economic developments before and after the 2008 financial crisis”, the author stated that: * By 2007, U.S. subprime mortgages comprised 14% of outstanding mortgages, equivalent to $1.46 trillion. The securitized element was...

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...

The Taylor hypothesis is the conjecture that the 2007-2009 financial crisis and the 2008-present downturn have been caused by loose monetary policy during 2002-2006. According to the Taylor hypothesis the Fed deviated from well-know rules of monetary policy-making over this period, and this...

This work aims to analyse the dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Cameroon and to determine the resulting business and growth cycles turning point chronology. The construction of a reference turning point chronology poses some problems related to the choice of the methods to be used. In...

Currently Pakistan’s economy is under stress and registered a sluggish growth for many years in a row. The performance of major economic indicators is not satisfactory. Low investment, double digit inflation, fiscal imbalances and low external capital inflows indicates the severity of the...

Against the backdrop of the move to an inflation targeting monetary policy framework beginning 2014 with consumer price index (CPI) inflation as the nominal anchor, this paper revisits monetary transmission dynamics. Rather than confining to the typical three equation New Keynesian model, this...

I generate priors for a VAR from four competing models of economic fluctuations: a standard RBC model, Fisher’s (2006) investment-specific technology shocks model, an RBC model with capital adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky price model with an unaccommodating monetary...

Economic cycle is defined as the fluctuation of an economy via expansion and contraction periods, influenced by varies kinds of macroeconomic indicators. The repeatable movement of economic indicators enables the accurate detection of these cycles with a forecasting approach that aims to improve...

A two-component model for the evolution of real GDP per capita in the USA is presented and tested. The first component of the GDP growth rate represents an economic trend and is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per capita itself, with the nominator being constant through...