In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of three popular econometric models ARIMA, MIDAS, and VAR for forecasting quarterly GDP in Madagascar. Our analysis reveals that ARIMA provides the most accurate forecasts among the three models, indicating its superiority in predicting the...

This research focuses on examining why young social media users might become trapped in a "social bubble" defined as seeking information that supports only one’s existing beliefs. We use a method called Qualitative Comparative Analysis to identify various combinations of factors that either...

Various ‘green’ investment channels cater specifically to environmentally conscious investments. In this paper, we investigate the optimal green investment strategy by comparing the risk of three green financial instruments– green bonds, green equity, and a balanced 50/50 bond equity fund....

This study assesses factors that influence property tax compliance in Twifo Hemang Lower Denkyira District. Some studies have made efforts to identify some factors that deter property tax compliance however distance to the nearest tax office has been left unattended. Therefore, this study fills...

This paper provides the modelling framework of the price formation block in the macro econometric Albanian model (MEAM). MEAM is constructed on neo-Keynesian theoretical principles, implying a vertical long-run aggregate supply curve with aggregate demand factors impacting supply in the...

This manual provides a comprehensive overview of Vector Autoregression (VAR) models using EViews. It covers key concepts, practical applications, and step-by-step guidance on implementing VAR modeling. The aim is to equip researchers and practitioners with the tools necessary to analyze time...

Forecasting the vote share for the upcoming US presidential elections involves multiple pivotal economic and non-economic factors. Critical macroeconomic forces such as the rate of economic growth, tax burden, inflation, and unemployment significantly influence the votes gained or lost by the...

Non-Gaussian state-space models arise in several applications, and within this framework the binary time series setting provides a relevant example. However, unlike for Gaussian state-space models — where filtering, predictive and smoothing distributions are available in closed form — binary...

The relationship between environmental degradation and poverty has gained importance in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals. While poverty is known to drive environmental degradation, environmental degradation disproportionately affects the poor and reinforces the...

In this paper, I explore how fiscal policy decisions relate to the business cycle and, building on that, how the effects of policy interventions may vary depending on when policy is conducted in the business cycle. To assess this, I estimate a small to medium-sized DSGE model with expressive...