This article examines the determinants of private investment in Bangladesh using the standard time series econometric analysis. The empirical results partially support the flexible accelerator hypothesis. It is partial in the sense that real interest rate is not statistically significant in...

This paper provides the prediction of future production of citrus and mango in the medium term up to 2010. The prediction was based on the assumptions that past trends (area planted and yield) and existence of normal weather pattern will hold. Time trend model with specific emphasis on growth...

This study investigates the relationship between relative price variability and inflation in three regions in Malaysia namely Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak. Using monthly time series data from January 1970 until Mac 2005, this study utilizes the non-linear time series technique of STAR...

The purpose of the System Dynamics method is to study the relationship between structure and behavior in non-linear, dynamic systems. In such systems, the significance of various structural components to the behavior pattern exhibited, changes as the behavior unfolds. Changes in structural...

Applied economists working with time series data face a dilemma in selecting between models with deterministic and stochastic trends. While models with deterministic trends are widely used, models with stochastic trends are not so well known. In an influential paper Harvey (1997) strongly...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Massachusetts. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of...

We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

This paper approaches some main objectives of the analysis of trends in discrete time series. A major aspect of this analysis is to identify a mathematical model that describes the persistent long-term movement of the studied variable. The model could reveal some important characteristics of the...