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Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015222846
In focusing on the 24 month window prior to the onset of the crisis, the criteria for ranking the indicators presented in our related work does not distinguish between a signal given 12 months prior to the crisis and one given one month prior to the crisis. In what follows we examine this issue,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015222847
Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015236232
The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015222844
In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015222845
The vulnerability/resilience nexus that defined the interaction between developing and advanced economies in the post-WWII era is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The aim of the paper is to analyse the nature of this transformation and its impact on the role and place of Emerging and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015249938
The Chinese state has integrated its economy into the neoliberal globalization of trade and investment without neoliberalizing its own financial markets, and to ensure stability, the state applies strict controls on interest rates, capital movement and the value of RMB. The Chinese state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015226089
We model a typical Asian-crisis-economy using dynamic general equilibrium tech-niques. Exchange rates obtain from nontrivial fiat-currencies demands. Sudden stops/bank-panics are possible, and key for evaluating the merits of alternative ex-change rate regimes. Strategic complementarities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015217851
The aim of this paper is to examine whether or not financial liberalization has triggered banking crises in developing countries. We focus in particular on the role of capital inflows as their volatilities threat economic stability. In the empirical model, based on Panel Logit estimation, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015242368
This paper explores the implications of financial repression, specifically, imperfect competition in the financial sector and capital controls for equilibrium interest rates and current account imbalances; and the implications of liberalization. I find that (1) interest differentials between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015213621