This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic...

Policy-induced boom in non-bank funding enabled prosperity in the technology sector and large corporate issuers. At the same time, income growth remained stagnant in low-to-middle-skill jobs and peripheral areas amid persistent job polarization, and combination of asset price appreciation and...

The economic and financial variables of economic agents determine macroeconomic variables. Current models consider agents’ variables that are determined by the sums of values and volumes of agents’ trades during some time interval Δ. We call them first-order economic variables. We describe...

This study examines the determinants of inflation in Madagascar using an ARDL model and World Bank data. The results highlight several key factors, including economic growth, fluctuations in oil prices, import dependency, and exchange rate variations, which contribute to inflation in the...

By utilizing the Fixed effect and GMM estimators for a sample of 57 Islamic banks and 102 conventional banks from 10 countries for the period 2002–2018, we examine the effect of the audit committees' and Sharia committees' effectiveness on the bank risk-taking behavior and its transmission...

This research aims to elucidate the organizational patterns of interregional economic interdependence to enhance our comprehension of the national economy's structure at a regional scale. Employing a multilayer network model, this study represents economic interdependence among Indonesian...

Inflation, exchange rate and gross domestic product (GDP) are critical variables to macroeconomic stability. For a small economy like Zambia, it is imperative for central authorities to establish the size and degree of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices and output as they...

We consider the randomness of values and volumes of market deals as a major factor that describes lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on the accuracy of the forecasts of macroeconomic variables, prices, and returns. We introduce random macroeconomic variables, whose average values...

This study utilizes the DSGE model DIGNAD to assess the economic impacts of natural disasters on Madagascar. Four distinct scenarios are analyzed: the first scenario (zero scenario) simulates the effects of a natural shock occurring in 2027. The second scenario evaluates the impact of investing...

This research investigates the multifaceted relationship between tourism, economic growth, and carbon emissions in Madagascar. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the impact of tourism receipts on economic growth and tourist arrivals on CO2 levels. The results indicate a significant...