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Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting

Evans, Martin D.; Lyons, Richard K. - 2005

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro … model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine … forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440722

"Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange"

Bollerslev, T.; Andersen, T.G.; Diebold, F. X.; Vega, C. - 2003

Using a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomicexpectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009475485

Balance of Payments, Exchange Rate, and Foreign Exchange Reserves in China since 1979

Popov, Vladimir - 2024

China was extremely successful in recent decades in managing external equilibrium in the short and medium term using three mechanisms to cushion the balance of payments shocks. First, it maintained a flexible rate, so could adjust to the fluctuations in trade balance and capital flows via...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015213832

Soutenabilité du compte courant de la R.D Congo: risques et perspectives

Muya, Jonathan; Malata, Alain - 2024

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has faced persistent current account deficits despite a period of economic growth fueled by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Balance of Payments (BOP) framework to explore the dynamics...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214462

Foreign Exchange Interventions in the New-Keynesian Model: Policy, Transmission, and Welfare

Yakhin, Yossi - 2024

The paper introduces foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) into a standard New-Keynesian small open economy model. It solves for the optimal FXI policy, suggests an implementable policy rule, and studies the transmission mechanism of FXIs. Relying on the portfolio balance channel, deviations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214600

Foreign Exchange Interventions in the New-Keynesian Model: Policy, Transmission, and Welfare

Yakhin, Yossi - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015214935

Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for the Polish zloty

Rubaszek, Michal - 2005

In May 2004 Poland joined the European Union and is thereby committed to introduce the euro in the forthcoming years. The balance of costs and benefits of the euro adoption depends on the decision of the Polish and European authorities concerning the level of central parity in the ERM II, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215180

Af1uencia de capital y apreciacion del tipo de cambio real en America Latina: E1 papel de los factores externos

Reinhart, Carmen; Calvo, Guillermo; Leiderman, Leonardo - 1993

The characteristics of recent capital inflows to Latin America are discussed. It is argued that these inflows are partially explained by economic conditions outside the region, like the recession in the United States and lower international interest rates. The importance of external factors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215827

Do capital controls influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s

Reinhart, Carmen; Montiel, Peter - 1999

In the early 1990s capital flows to the Asian economies were dominated by FDI. By contrast, Latin America was attracting little FDI and a large share of its inflows were either short-term or portfolio and viewed as “hot money.” These differences gave rise to the view that Latin America was...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215853

Targeting the real exchange rate

Reinhart, Carmen; Calvo, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos - 1994

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015215887