This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring U.S. recessions in the presence of … superior performance in the ability to correctly call recessions and to avoid false recession signals. Overall, the sensitivity …, specificity, and accuracy of these models are far superior as well as their ability to timely signal recessions. The results …

deflator, it provides a root mean square forecasting error (RMFSE) of 1.0% at a four-year horizon for the period between 1971 …

time-varying forecasting performance of a DSGE model incorporating a financial accelerator a la Bernanke et al. (1999) with … decade" in Japan. According to our empirical results, the accelerator improves the forecasting of investment over the whole … the forecasting performance of the model with the accelerator. A robust check with a dynamic pool method (Del Negro et al …