This paper draws its title from a paper written over 35 years ago by GeoffreyH. Moore (1967). Why the need for a reprise? First, there would appear currentlyto be somewhat diverging views as to what properly constitutes a recession. Second,largely as a result of this, in many countries other...

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two...

Durland and McCurdy (1994) investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime switching approach, introduced by Hamilton (1989) and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo(1994). In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration...

We evaluate techniques for comparing the ability of Markov regime switching (MRS) models to fit underlying regimes of a series of interest. This is particularly important in the business cycle literature where one may be interested in determining whether using leading indicators to allow...

Australia has one of the more volatile set of export prices among OECD countries. This paper examines the extent to which Australia’s export prices relate to the world prices, using quarterly time-series data spanning, the period 1969–2002. The empirical results based on dynamic least...

This article examines the magnitude and duration of the effect of the Goods and Services Tax(GST) on inflation in Australia's eight capital cities using the Box and Tiao intervention analysis and quarterly data spanning from 1948:4 to 2003:l. We found that the GST had a significant but...

As is the case with most small open economies, volatility in Australia's export prices is an important source of national macroeconomic disturbance largely out of its control given its choice of export bundle. The Capital Asset Pricing Model of portfolio theory is employed as a loose, but...

This paper employs all available annual time series data to endogenously determine the timing of structural breaks for 10 macroeconomic variables in the Australian economy. The ADF (Augmented Dickey and Fuller) test and the LP (Lumsdaine and Papell, 1997) test are used to examine the time series...

The paper re-examines the issue of duration dependence in the Australian classical and growth business cycles in light of the somewhat surprising results obtained recently by Cashin and Ouliaris (2004). In so doing the authors use the multinomial logit regime switching modelling approach of...