Showing 1 - 10 of 3,565
In this paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of efficiency are not met, the forecast displaying the lowest MSPE will also display the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015241474
Summary. This is an extended working paper version of the paper that appeared in Economic Theory. It paper compares the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes in small open economies where financial intermediaries perform a real allocative function, there are multiple reserve requirements,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015217822
In this paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of the London Metal Exchange Index and of the six primary non-ferrous metals that are part of the index: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. The economic relationship hinges on the present-value...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015258752
This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a small open economy DSGE model with non-tradable goods and sticky prices. The introduction of non-traded goods is shown to have important implications for the transmission of shocks and monetary policy arrangements. First, the results show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261239
Against the backdrop of the move to an inflation targeting monetary policy framework beginning 2014 with consumer price index (CPI) inflation as the nominal anchor, this paper revisits monetary transmission dynamics. Rather than confining to the typical three equation New Keynesian model, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261364
In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261799
This paper investigated some macroeconomic and financial stylised facts in the context of the developing economies of the Guinea and the five Anglophone West Africa countries, consisting of The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. These six countries were collectively known as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015266866
In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015243686
“Being rich in energy resources – a blessing or a curse” finds that an energy resource curse plagues many EU supplier states. This in turn directly affects Europe’s energy supply security and threatens to engulf Europe in unwanted hostilities at home and abroad. The study addresses seven...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015212468
This paper proposes a framework to estimate the effects of exogenous fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks on the macroeconomic activity of price-taking oil producers. We apply the methodology to Ecuador, using a structural vector autoregressive model estimated with Bayesian methods....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015217252