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Summary of the Paper Entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate

Pincheira, Pablo; Jarsun, Nabil - 2020

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382

The predictive relationship between exchange rate expectations and base metal prices

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolas - 2018

In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261799

Forecasting Aluminum Prices with Commodity Currencies

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolás - 2019

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738

Utility maximization analysis of an emerging firm: a bordered Hessian approach

Mohajan, Devajit; Mohajan, Haradhan - 2022

In this paper, method of Lagrange multipliers is used to investigate the utility function; subject to two constraints: budget constraint, and coupon constraint, and to verify that the utility is maximized. An economic model of an emerging firm has been developed here by considering four...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015269206

The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox: A summary

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolas - 2020

display the lowest correlation with the target variable. Given that violations of efficiency are usual in the forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229363

Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors

Pincheira, Pablo; Hernández, Ana María - 2019

In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015266130

The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolas - 2021

are usual in the forecasting literature, this opposite behavior in terms of accuracy and correlation with the target …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015241474

Forecasting Base Metal Prices with an International Stock Index

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolas; Bentancor, Andrea; … - 2021

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015243686

Does a financial accelerator improve forecasts during financial crises?: Evidence from Japan with Prediction Pool Methods

Hasumi, Ryo; Iiboshi, Hirokuni; Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi; … - 2018

time-varying forecasting performance of a DSGE model incorporating a financial accelerator a la Bernanke et al. (1999) with … decade" in Japan. According to our empirical results, the accelerator improves the forecasting of investment over the whole … the forecasting performance of the model with the accelerator. A robust check with a dynamic pool method (Del Negro et al …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015259793

Unit Root Tests with Wavelets

Gencay, Ramazan; Fan, Yanqin - 2007

This paper develops a wavelet (spectral) approach to test the presence of a unit root in a stochastic process. The wavelet approach is appealing, since it is based directly on the different behavior of the spectra of a unit root process and that of a short memory stationary process. By...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015217374