In Markov-switching regression models, we use Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the true and candidate models to select the number of states and variables simultaneously. In applying Akaike information criterion (AIC), which is an estimate of KL divergence, we find that AIC retains too...

We study the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on corn, wheat, and soybean futures prices. The war provides a natural experiment to evaluate whether futures markets are driven by investor herding. Using event study methods, we find that wheat futures prices rose by 30 percent above...

Environmental regulation of agriculture is becoming increasingly important, and growers are increasingly concerned about the effects of regulations on their profitability. Regulations governing the use of a pesticide affect its economic value. Further, growers often face a choice among pesticide...