In canonical vector time series autoregressions, which permit dependence only on past values, the errors generally show contemporaneous correlation. By contrast structural vector autoregressions allow contemporaneous series dependence and assume errors with no contemporaneous correlation. Such...

The variance profile is defined as the power mean of the spectral density function of a stationary stochastic process. It is a continuous and non-decreasing function of the power parameter, p, which returns the minimum of the spectrum (p → −∞), the interpolation error variance (harmonic...

This paper investigates empirically the nature of the interactions between mass media, investor attention and the stock market using data from a sample of 16 spin-off deals traded on NYSE and published between 2004 and 2010 in “Wall Street Journal”, the US’s second-largest newspaper by...

Climate forecasting systems that group years on the basis of a climate forecasting index like the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are quite simple to explain to industry personnel. Phase systems identify a subset of years (analogues) that have the same phase...