Empirical Bayes provides one approach to estimating the frequency of rare events as a weighted average of the frequencies of an event and a pool of events. The pool will draw upon, for example, events with similar precursors. The higher the degree of homogeneity of the pool, then the Empirical...

Classical approaches to estimating the rate of occurrence of events perform poorly when data are few. Maximum likelihood estimators result in overly optimistic point estimates of zero for situations where there have been no events. Alternative empirical-based approaches have been proposed based...

This report examines a number of exploration campaigns that have taken place during the last 700 years, and considers them from a risk perspective. The explorations are those led by Christopher Columbus, Sir Walter Raleigh, John Franklin, Sir Ernest Shackleton, the Company of Scotland to Darien...

This paper proposes a mathematical model to associate key operational, managerial and design characteristics of a system with the system's susceptibility towards common cause failure (CCF) events. The model, referred to as the geometric scaling (GS) model, is a mathematical form that allows us...

Bayesian methods are common in reliability and risk assessment, however, such methods often demand a large amount of specification and can be computationally intensive. Because of this, many practitioners are unable to take advantage of many of the benefits found in a Bayesian-based approach....

Bayesian methods are common in reliability and risk assessment, however, such methods often demand a large amount of specification and can be computationally intensive. Because of this, many practitioners are unable to take advantage of many of the benefits found in a Bayesian-based approach....

Advances in Mathematical Modeling for Reliability discusses fundamental issues on mathematical modeling in reliability theory and its applications. Beginning with an extensive discussion of graphical modeling and Bayesian networks, the focus shifts towards repairable systems: a discussion about...

In running our increasingly complex business systems, formal risk analyses and risk management techniques are becoming more important part to managers: all managers, not just those charged with risk management. It is also becoming apparent that human behaviour is often a root or significant...

In this paper we show how sensitivity analysis for a maintenance optimisation problem can be undertaken by using the concept of Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI). This concept is important in a decision-theoretic context such as the maintenance problem, as it allows us to explore the...

This paper presents a competing risks reliability model for a system that releases signals each time its condition deteriorates. The released signals are used to inform opportunistic maintenance. The model provides a framework for the determination of the underlying system lifetime from...