This dissertation is motivated by the fact that while the literature has had a great deal of success in developing empirical models for monetary policy analysis, the same can not be said for fiscal policy. This work advances our understanding of various issues in identification and modeling of...

This paper develops optimal tests for model selection between two nested models in the presence of underlying parameter instability. These are joint tests for both parameter instability and a null hypothesis on (a subset of) the parameters. They modify the existing tests for parameter...

Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the...

Surveys of Professional Forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for...

En este documento se proponen nuevos métodos con el objetivo de construir intervalos de confianza para el sesgo del estimador de mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas y para la distorsión del tamaño del test de Wald asociado a los modelos de variables instrumentales. Es importante destacar que...

In this article, we review Granger-causality tests robust to the presence of instabilities in a Vector Autoregressive framework. We also introduce the gcrobustvar command, which illustrates the procedure in Stata. In the presence of instabilities, the Granger-causality robust test is more...