This paper examines the relationship between the Russian ruble/US dollar exchange rate and global oil prices using autoregressive model with Markovian regime shifts. Empirical analysis on daily data for 2009–2019 shows that exchange rate dynamics is best described by three regimes,...

This is a summary of the paper entitled : “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

In this paper we analyze the relationship between the real Russian ruble exchange rate and real oil prices using the error correction model with Markov regime switching, which allows for changes in exchange rate policy. We find that during the period 1999-2018 real exchange rate dynamics was...

The study compares the explanatory power of two alternative long-term determinants of the real effective exchange rate of the Russian ruble, oil prices and oil export revenues, in three variants of the error correction model. The linear model shows that during the period of managed nominal...

The paper estimates vector error correction model (VECM) for the real ruble exchange rate and the real oil prices. The VECM model takes into account the structural break in short run parameters due to monetary policy regime change in November 2014. Estimates show that the real exchange rate...

This paper examines the extent to which changes in exchange rates result in changes in Turkish domestic inflation. Specifically, we determine if there has been a change in the magnitude of this impact from the pre-2003 period to the post-2003, when the exchange rates were allowed to float....

Connection between interest rate and foreign exchange is important because of the economic volatility of the two variables, which has an impact on several macroeconomic indicators: inflation, real income, exports and imports. This papers aims to establish a series of characteristics regarding...

This paper examines the long run dynamics of exchange rate and bilateral export-import flows between China and Malaysia. Our analysis contributed in using high frequency monthly data for the recent period from January 1990 to January 2008, based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound...