The euro zone crisis illustrates the insufficiency of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Firstly, the paper gives an evaluation of exchange rate misalignments inside the euro zone, using a FEER approach (Jeong, Mazier and Saadaoui, 2010). Using...

The literature on exchange rate misalignments is very extensive as well as the literature on exchange rate determinants. To our knowledge, however, no study has analyzed the determinants of exchange rate misalignments. As huge capital inflows have been pouring into emerging countries since the...

The euro zone crisis illustrates the insufficiency of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, they are very few alternative mechanisms. This situation reflects a simple diagnosis. At the level of the whole euro...

The euro crisis illustrates the deficiencies of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, few alternative mechanisms are available. Nevertheless, fiscal policy could play an active role. The chapter is organized...

Ensuring a stable supply of critical minerals at reasonable prices is essential for the clean energy transition. The security of supply of critical minerals is particularly susceptible to geopolitical risk. In this paper, we use constant and time-varying parameter local projection (TVP-LP)...

We investigate if capital account openness has played a major role in the evolution of global imbalances on the period 1980-2003. We estimate, with panel regression techniques, the impact of capital account openness on medium run current account imbalances for industrialized and emerging...

The reduction of global imbalances observed during the climax of crisis is incomplete. In this context, currencies realignments are still proposed to ensure global macroeconomic stability. These realignments are based on equilibrium rates derived from equilibrium exchange rate models. Among...

Since the mid-1990s, we observe a global increase of current account imbalances. In 2007, before the climax of the financial crisis, they reached 2% of world GDP in absolute value. At the global level, the persistence of large current account imbalances is a threat to the macroeconomic and...

I explore the relationship between US-China tensions, US partisan conflict and global oil prices over the last 20 years. Using lag-augmented local projections, I find empirical support for both the scapegoating hypothesis and the “following the flag” hypothesis. For the scapegoating...

The paper considers 18 OPEC countries that were low-income countries when oil was found. Oil has given the countries a special path to high income. Normally wealth leads to democracy, but in oil countries it leads to a consolidation of the previous authoritarian rule. Thus, in most cases, oil...