In 2011-2015 global trade volumes have systematically surprised on the downside, to a much larger extent than real GDP. We show that two key features of real trade flows --- their high volatility and their procyclicality --- determine a cyclicality of the income elasticity of trade. This...

In 2011-2015 global trade has disappointed, to a much larger extent than global GDP. We show that two key features of real trade flows - their high volatility and their procyclicality - determine a cyclicality of the income elasticity of trade. This property is such that when real GDP growth is...

En un marco teórico simplificado, modelizamos las interacciones estratégicas entre los productores de la OPEP y los no pertenecientes a la OPEP y sus implicaciones para el mercado global de petróleo. Dependiendo de las condiciones del mercado, la OPEP puede considerar óptimo actuar como...