Το παρόν άρθρο πραγματοποιεί μια ιστορική αναδρομή αναφορικά με τις μεταβολές της νομισματικής πολιτικής στις ΗΠΑ μέσα από τις επιτυχημένες ή μη πολιτικές της...

This paper studies the cyclical behaviour of the annual American Gross Domestic Product (GDP) series. We show that rare events have varied effects, which give useful information on the nature and the amplitude of economic shocks. Our methodology is, more precisely, an efficient testing procedure...

The trend of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States clearly shifted downward after the Great Recession of 2008. This shift indicates that the cause of the Great Recession was a change in a fundamental factor that had the potential to significantly affect the steady state. In this...

This paper presents both an extended nonlinear Hicks model of the cycle for a semi-open economy and a method for deriving estimators based on Nonlinear Least Squares as a Numerical Optimization Problem. Hicks thought that fluctuations in investment, caused by nonlinear changes in autonomous...

This paper reviews the possibility that Harvard barometers would have enabled to predict the Great Depression. Based on data from the ABC curves in August 1929, could have been foreseen the collapse of the stock market and the dramatic fall in economic activity?. It is now accepted that Harvard...

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more...

Using the annual data of real GDP from 1970 to 2010, this paper examines the synchronization of business cycles in the WAEMU. Two methods are used. First we calculate the cross correlations between cyclical components of real GDP of the different economies of the Union. The study then evaluate...

Using the annual data of real GDP from 1970 to 2010, this paper examines the synchronization of business cycles in the WAEMU. Two methods are used. First we calculate the cross correlations between cyclical components of real GDP of the different economies of the Union. The study then evaluate...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...